Iris Coleman
Jun 20, 2026 19:10
Rep. Bryan Steil proposes a bill banning Congress members from policy-related bets on prediction markets, sparking debate over White House exclusion.
Wisconsin Representative Bryan Steil, Chair of the House Subcommittee on Digital Assets, has introduced a bill aimed at banning members of Congress, their spouses, and dependent children from wagering on policy-related events and political outcomes through prediction markets. The proposed ‘Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act’ comes amid growing concerns about insider trading on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.
The bill, unveiled on June 19, specifies a $2,000 fine or 10% of the wagered amount for violations. However, it notably excludes White House officials, including President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance, from its restrictions. This omission has raised eyebrows, as Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr., is both a strategic advisor to Kalshi and Polymarket and has ties to political betting platforms.
The legislation seeks to address ethical concerns stemming from recent controversies. For instance, earlier this year, a U.S. soldier allegedly profited over $400,000 by betting on the U.S.-backed ousting of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Such events have heightened scrutiny of prediction markets, which blur the lines between regulated financial instruments and outright gambling.
Interestingly, the bill restricts wagers on government actions, policies, and election outcomes but does not extend to sporting event bets. If passed and signed into law, the restrictions would take effect 180 days after enactment, giving lawmakers time to adjust their activities.
Regulatory Tensions and Broader Implications
Steil’s proposal arrives as regulatory battles over prediction markets intensify. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has claimed exclusive jurisdiction over these platforms, arguing that event contracts fall under the Commodity Exchange Act as ‘swaps.’ The agency has already filed lawsuits challenging state-level restrictions on prediction markets, asserting its authority over these platforms. Experts believe the legal fight could escalate to the Supreme Court.
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have also faced questions about Know Your Customer (KYC) compliance amidst a global crackdown. While these platforms claim to offer valuable insights into public sentiment on political and policy issues, critics argue they create opportunities for insider trading and market manipulation.
Steil’s Political Calculations
The bill’s timing is politically significant. Steil, a four-term Republican congressman, represents Wisconsin’s competitive 1st District, where he faces a potentially tough re-election battle in November 2026. Known for advancing election administration legislation and financial regulation policies, Steil has cultivated a reputation as a fiscal conservative aligned with Trump-era policies. His legislative focus on ethics reform could bolster his appeal among moderate voters.
However, the decision to exempt White House officials from the proposed restrictions could open Steil to criticism. Trump’s close ties to prediction market platforms, including their sponsorship of events like the UFC Freedom 250 at the White House, may raise questions about potential conflicts of interest.
What’s Next?
For the bill to become law, it must first pass both chambers of Congress and receive the president’s signature. Given the current political landscape, the legislation could face challenges in gaining bipartisan support, especially with its White House exemption. Market participants and regulators will closely monitor developments, as the outcome could significantly impact the future of prediction markets and their regulatory framework.
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